Survey: First Drop for Vannacci, Campo Largo Close to the Center-Right

The September 2026 BiDiMedia poll marks a turning point in political support. For the first time in weeks, Brothers of Italy stalls at 25.4%, while the Democratic Party rises to 21.2%. The most significant figure concerns National Future - Vannacci, which after months of uninterrupted growth records its first decline, dropping to 7.8% (-0.2).

As an arithmetic sum of the parties, the Center-right, expanded to include National Future, remains in first place but slightly declines to 46.9%, while the Broad Field approaches, rising to 44.9%. The gap between the two blocs narrows further. In a scenario of voting for coalition lists, the Broad Field would come first at 44.2%, ahead of the Center-right at 41.1%.

The poll also reveals a weak hold on Vannacci's electorate: in a runoff, only 69% of his voters would flow to the Center-right, while 31% would be lost between undecided and non-voters. A percentage significantly lower than the other parties in the area.

The Italian political system is characterized by two main coalitions: the Center-right (led by Giorgia Meloni with Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia) and the Campo Largo (a center-left coalition led by the Democratic Party with other forces). In recent months, a significant development had emerged with the rise of Futuro Nazionale, the party of General Roberto Vannacci, which was gaining support primarily from the right-wing area.

Vannacci's growth had created tensions within the Center-right, as it was drawing votes mainly from Brothers of Italy and the League. For months, polls had shown a steady rise for Futuro Nazionale, while the traditional Center-right was losing ground. This phenomenon had narrowed the gap between the two main blocs, making the competition increasingly tight.

Vannacci's decline signals a possible reversal of the trend. If confirmed, it could mean that part of the electorate is returning to the traditional parties or that the novelty effect is wearing off. The reduced resilience of his electorate in the runoff election nevertheless indicates that this is a political force with a distinct identity, not fully integrated into the traditional coalitional system.