Poll: First drop for Vannacci, Campo Largo brings the Center-Right closer

The National Future Party – Vannacci has recorded its first decline after months of uninterrupted growth, dropping to 7.8% in voting intentions. This is revealed by the September 2026 BiDiMedia poll. Simultaneously, the Democratic Party rises to 21.2% and the Greens and Left Alliance to 6.7%.

As an arithmetic sum of the parties, the Center-right, expanded to include National Future, remains in first place but slightly declines to 46.9%, while the Broad Field (the center-left coalition) closes in, rising to 44.9%. The gap between the two blocs narrows further. In a scenario of voting for coalition lists, the Broad Field would come first at 44.2%, ahead of the Center-right at 41.1%.

If there were to be a hypothetical runoff between the two major coalitions, the gap would be extremely narrow: Center-right at 50.3% against the Broad Field's 49.7%. The electoral simulation under the new electoral law (Stabilicum) awards the majority bonus to the Broad Field, which would secure 212 seats against the Center-right's 135.

The Italian political landscape is in a phase of high fluidity, characterized by the rise of new actors and the redefinition of alliances. The current situation stems from the 2022 general elections, which led to the formation of a center-right government led by Giorgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy). In the subsequent years, the political scene has fragmented with the emergence of new players.

One of the protagonists of this transformation is General Roberto Vannacci, who founded the Futuro Nazionale movement, attracting support mainly from right-wing and nationalist voters. For months, polls have shown a steady growth of his formation, eroding support for traditional center-right parties like Forza Italia and the League. Simultaneously, the center-left parties (the so-called 'Campo Largo,' which includes the Democratic Party, the 5 Star Movement, the Greens and Left Alliance, and other minor forces) have worked to build a unified alternative.

The current dynamic is therefore the result of two trends: the slowdown of the hemorrhage of votes from the center-right towards Vannacci (at least according to this poll) and the ability of the Campo Largo to consolidate its electorate. This scenario intertwines with the debate on electoral reform (the 'Stabilicum'), which could reward the most voted coalition with a substantial seat bonus, making every percentage point decisive for future parliamentary balances.