Vannacci's formation is growing in the SWG polls of September 17th. The center-right remains at 40.7%, while the broad coalition surpasses the 42% threshold.
Roberto Vannacci's National Future movement continues to grow in the polls, reaching 7.9% in the SWG survey of September 17. This figure, up by two decimal points, places the formation ahead of Forza Italia, steady at 6.9%, and the League, at 5.5%. Brothers of Italy remains firmly the first party at 27%, while the Democratic Party consolidates second place at 22.9%.
The growth of National Future is altering the internal balance within the center-right area. According to the YouTrend-AGI Supermedia of September 17, the center-right coalition formed by FdI, Forza Italia, the League, and We Moderates stands at 40.7%, while the broad field including Italia Viva reaches 42.3%. This latter figure exceeds by three decimal points the 42% threshold set by the new electoral reform to access the governability bonus.
The new electoral reform, approved by the Senate on September 15, 2026, introduced a system with a predominantly proportional base and a governability bonus of 70 deputies and 35 senators. To access this bonus, a list or coalition must obtain the highest number of votes nationally and reach at least 42% of valid votes in both Chambers. The electoral threshold remains at 3% for individual lists and 10% for coalitions.
National Future is a political formation founded in 2025, led by General Roberto Vannacci. Its rise in the polls represents a new element in the Italian political landscape, altering the traditional balance within the center-right. Before the emergence of National Future, the center-right was dominated by Brothers of Italy, with Forza Italia and the League as minor partners. Vannacci's growth has created a new dynamic, pushing Forza Italia to fourth place in the area and reducing the League's space.
The current situation thus sees three main blocs: the traditional center-right at 40.7%, the broad field (center-left with allies) at 42.3%, and National Future as an autonomous force at 7.7%. The broad field's proximity to the 42% threshold and National Future's autonomous position make the arithmetic of future electoral alliances particularly complex.
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