EU Intelligence: Russia Could Attack NATO Within a Few Months

European intelligence services are issuing a concrete warning about the risk of Russian military action against NATO "within months, not years." According to assessments reported by The Guardian, the Kremlin's plans could include a small-scale invasion of Alliance territories bordering Russia, a provocation, or a massive propaganda campaign.

The warning has been described as "well-founded and well-documented" by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has informed French political leaders. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk had already alerted Parliament to the possibility of a Russian attack using drones or missiles against NATO territory to demonstrate that the collective defense Article 5 "is more theoretical than practical."

Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly is convening in New York, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with Donald Trump. Zelensky stated that the meeting "could change many things" and that "the path to peace is our absolute priority," while the Trump administration has made a new attempt to initiate negotiations.

The tension between Russia and the West has deep roots, but the current critical phase erupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This conflict has radically changed the perception of the Russian threat in Europe, especially in neighboring countries like Poland and the Baltic states, which for years had been warning their Western partners about the dangers emanating from Moscow.

Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has progressively intensified its "hybrid warfare" actions against NATO countries, avoiding direct frontal attacks but resorting to provocations, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. Moscow has repeatedly stated that countries providing weapons, intelligence, and military advisors to Ukraine are considered "involved in the war" and therefore legitimate targets.

According to European intelligence agencies, Russia's medium-term strategic objective would be to weaken Western support for Ukraine, convincing European countries to withdraw from the conflict by escalating tensions. The possible next move could be a limited attack against a NATO member to test the solidity of Article 5, the collective defense principle that commits all members to respond if one is attacked.