The EU is moving towards ending the deficit procedure for Italy in the spring.

The European Union is reportedly considering the possibility of closing the excessive deficit procedure against Italy next spring. The European Commission appears inclined toward a more flexible interpretation of budget rules, thereby opening a formal path out of the infringement procedure.

This decision follows the communication of Istat data on Italy's deficit/GDP ratio for 2025, confirmed at 3.1% after a revision. The national statistics institute revised upward both GDP (by 7 billion) and the deficit, the latter mainly due to increased infrastructure investments. The final percentage remained substantially unchanged.

The definitive data from Istat and Eurostat will now be examined by the European Commission, which will formally assess the exit from the procedure. To date, Eurostat has raised reservations about Istat communications only once, in 2005. The official decision is expected by next October 21st.

The excessive deficit procedure is a European Union tool for monitoring and correcting budgetary imbalances of member countries. It is triggered when the ratio of public deficit to Gross Domestic Product exceeds the 3% threshold, as established by the Stability and Growth Pact. Italy has been under this procedure for years due to its high public debt and difficulty in meeting the parameters.

The path toward a possible closure of the procedure begins with the annual review of economic data. ISTAT, following European rules established by Eurostat, communicates preliminary estimates in March and final data in September. This year's review is particularly significant because it could sanction Italy's exit from the procedure. The data comes from the State General Accounting Department, municipalities, and company financial statements.

The current situation stems from years of negotiations between Italy and the EU regarding compliance with budgetary parameters. A possible closure in spring would represent an important step forward in relations between Rome and Brussels, although the path of public finance consolidation remains complex. The final decision will depend on Eurostat's assessment of Italian data on the upcoming October 21st.