Polls: the broad coalition surpasses the center-right by half a point.

According to the latest Noto poll released on September 23, 2026, the 'broad field' coalition—which includes the Democratic Party (PD), the Five Star Movement (M5S), AVS, Action, Italia Viva, +Europa, and other smaller formations—has reached 42.7% of voting intentions, surpassing the center-right coalition by half a percentage point, which remains at 42.2%. This figure represents a reversal of the trend compared to previous surveys.

Brothers of Italy confirms its lead as the largest single party, standing at 27.7% (+0.2% compared to September 8). The Democratic Party rises to 20% (+0.5%), while the Five Star Movement grows to 12.5% (+0.3%). National Future, however, records a significant decline, falling to 8% (-1%). The poll nevertheless highlights how the differences between the two blocs are minimal and subject to fluctuations.

The 2027 Italian general elections are approaching in a climate of great uncertainty, with a new electoral law—informally called the 'Melonellum'—that provides a majority bonus to the coalition that surpasses 42% of the votes in both Houses. This mechanism makes every percentage point decisive for the formation of the next government.

The 'broad field' is a political expression that emerged in recent years to indicate the alliance between the main center-left forces and some centrist parties. Its composition has been the subject of complex negotiations, as it includes groups with different histories and positions, from the Democratic Party to the Five Star Movement, down to smaller formations like Action and Italia Viva. The goal is to counter the center-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni.

Polls in recent months have shown a substantial balance between the two blocs, with minimal fluctuations that make it difficult to make certain predictions. The half-point advantage of the broad field, if confirmed at the polls, could be enough to secure the majority bonus and form the government, but the razor-thin margin leaves everything open until the last vote.