'Stabilicum' approved with a majority bonus at 42%. Meloni banks on strategic voting, Schlein faces a divided front.
The Chamber of Deputies has given final approval to the electoral reform, nicknamed 'Stabilicum' or 'Melonellum', after the government called a vote of confidence on the two articles of the law. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned that any "tricks" in secret ballots would lead directly to early elections under the current Rosatellum system, a scenario considered unfavorable for the center-right.
The new law introduces a proportional system with a fixed majority bonus for the coalition that exceeds 42% of the votes, awarding up to 220 deputies and 113 senators. The main innovation is the requirement to indicate the prime ministerial candidate at the time of submitting the lists, a rule creating tensions in the opposition camp between Elly Schlein (PD) and Giuseppe Conte (M5S). The text, secured by the government, is expected to receive final approval by October 8th.
Polls show the center-right below the 42% threshold (39.4%) due to the rise of Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale (8.8%), while the broad opposition camp (PD, M5S, Avs, Italia Viva) is at 44.5% but internally divided. The reform also raises the number of signatures required for new parties (around 400,000 total), making it difficult for new formations like Alessandro Onorato's Progetto Civico Italia to enter.
The electoral reform stems from the Meloni government's need to overcome the current system, the Rosatellum, which according to the center-right would lead to a political "swamp" in the event of new elections. Its origin dates back to the shelving of the "Casellati Bill" on the direct election of the prime minister, which was rejected after the referendum on justice. The League pushed for a fixed majority bonus (not percentage-based) to compensate for losses in the North's single-member constituencies.
The main protagonists are Giorgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy), who aims for a useful vote against the rise of Roberto Vannacci (National Future), and the opposition leaders Elly Schlein (Democratic Party) and Giuseppe Conte (Five Star Movement), who are divided on issues such as arms to Ukraine and the citizen's income. The reform was designed before Vannacci's surge, which now jeopardizes surpassing the 42% threshold.
Possible consequences could include early elections if the bill does not pass, or an election campaign centered on divisive primaries within the center-left. The law could lead to a stable majority if someone exceeds 42%, or to a "swamp" if both blocs remain below the threshold, undermining the stability objective that gives the 'Stabilicum' its name.
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