Electoral law in the Chamber: Meloni banks on strategic voting against Vannacci

The electoral reform, renamed "Stabilicum" or "Melonellum," has arrived in the Chamber of Deputies, shielded by a confidence vote placed by the government. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned that any "tricks" in the two secret ballots scheduled—the first on constitutional objections and the final one on the text—would lead straight to early elections.

The center-right's strategy is banking entirely on the "useful vote" to curb the rise of Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale, which polls show exceeding 8%, and to try to surpass the 42% vote threshold needed to secure the majority bonus. The latest Ipsos poll indicates the center-right without Vannacci at 39.4%, below the crucial threshold.

The debate on electoral reform stems from the center-right's desire to change the current system, the Rosatellum, which, according to the majority, would lead to a certain defeat or at best a stalemate in the next elections. The main issue is the rise of Roberto Vannacci's party, Futuro Nazionale, which risks "handing over" to opponents the single-member constituencies considered safe for the center-right.

The reform, conceived before the explosion of the Vannacci phenomenon, introduces two key elements: a majority bonus assigned through fixed coalition lists (up to 220 deputies and 113 senators) and the requirement to indicate the prime ministerial candidate at the time of submitting the lists. This latter rule, strongly advocated by Meloni, forces opposition parties to hold potentially divisive primaries to choose their candidate. The law was thus designed as a tool to ensure government stability but risks leading to a "quagmire" if both coalitions remain below 42%.