High energy and fuel costs have weighed heavily with 16.5 billion since the start of the conflict. Codacons estimates increases of up to 1,200 euros per household by 2026.
The war in Iran and the conflict in the Middle East have caused record price increases in Italy, with a differentiated impact on Italians' pockets. According to analyses by Codacons, Cna, and Cgia, from the start of the conflict to September 30, 2026, high energy costs have imposed an additional expenditure of approximately 16.5 billion euros on households and businesses compared to the average prices in February.
The impact varies based on income and profession: an unemployed person would spend 701 euros more by the end of the year, a worker about 900 euros, while a manager or executive could reach 1,200 euros. The most affected sectors are fuel (7.4–7.6 billion in additional costs), electricity (5.8–6 billion), and gas (3–3.3 billion). In September alone, the additional bill ranged between 4.6 and 5.2 billion.
If prices remain at September levels and the capped fuel prices are not extended beyond the end of the year, the total energy bill for 2026 could reach 33 billion euros, with the fourth quarter alone risking adding another 16 billion to the already accumulated damages.
The current situation originates from the outbreak of war in Iran and the spread of conflict in the Middle East in the early months of 2026. This geopolitical event disrupted energy supply chains and caused a surge in commodity prices globally, particularly impacting importing countries like Italy.
The mechanism is classic: war creates uncertainty in markets, reduces oil and gas supply from the region, and traders speculate on the future, driving up spot and futures prices. Italy, dependent on imports for the majority of its energy needs, found itself immediately exposed to these shocks. The first effects were seen as early as March 2026, with progressive increases peaking in September, when gasoline reached its highest levels since March 2022.
The consequences reverberate throughout the entire economy: households must allocate more income to bills and fuel, reducing spending on other goods. Businesses, especially SMEs, see production costs rise, risking reduced investment or layoffs. If further price containment measures or a reduction in geopolitical tensions do not intervene, the economic burden on the country will continue to grow until the end of the year.
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