Severe weather alert in the South: intense rains and strong winds, then high pressure returns

The Department of Civil Protection has issued the National Weather Vigilance Bulletin for October 10, 2026, forecasting severe weather conditions for several regions in Central-Southern Italy. Widespread precipitation, in the form of showers or thunderstorms, will affect Calabria, Ionian Basilicata, central-southern Apulia, and the Adriatic sectors of Marche and Abruzzo, with generally moderate cumulative amounts, especially in Apulia. Strong northwesterly winds are also expected over Sardinia and Sicily, and southerly winds over southern Apulia, with seas ranging from very rough to stormy.

The unsettled phase is set to dissipate rapidly. In fact, from October 11 onward, forecasts indicate the advance of an anticyclone that will bring mostly sunny and mild weather to much of the country. Maximum temperatures are expected to rise significantly in Lazio, Umbria, Marche, and Abruzzo, while a residual breeze from the northern quadrants will persist in the South.

The weather situation described in the bulletin is the final act of an unstable phase that has affected the Mediterranean. The origin of this bad weather can be traced back to the clash between different air masses: cooler air of Atlantic or North European origin meeting the warmer, more humid air present over the Mediterranean basin and southern Italy. This clash, typical of seasonal transition periods like autumn, triggers the formation of storm systems and promotes intense precipitation and strong winds.

The main protagonists in this scenario are, on one side, the Atlantic disturbances moving southward, and on the other, the Azores High which, after allowing the passage of the disturbances, reasserts itself by expanding toward Italy. The transition from one condition to the other is rapid: after the rains and thunderstorms concentrated mainly over the Adriatic and Ionian regions, the high pressure takes over, ensuring atmospheric stability, clearer skies, and a rise in temperatures. The immediate consequences of the bad weather can include localized hydrogeological issues and storm surges, while the return of high pressure promises a respite and conditions typical of the "Ottobrata."