Ipsos polls: center-right falls below 40%, Futuro Nazionale grows.

According to the latest Ipsos survey, the center-right (without General Vannacci) drops to 39.4%, losing over one percentage point. Brothers of Italy remains substantially stable at 26.4%, while the League retreats to 4.7% and Forza Italia declines to 7.3%. National Future, the party of General Vannacci, shows significant growth, reaching 8.8% and gaining 1.7% in the last month.

On the opposition front, the Democratic Party is estimated at 19.5% (down 0.6%), the 5 Star Movement at 14.5%, and the Green and Left Alliance at 6.3%. The progressive coalition (broad field) reaches 44.5%. The poll highlights how the presence of Vannacci in the center-right coalition would bring the latter to 45.7%, but with a reduction compared to the arithmetic sum of the individual parties due to some voters' resistance to the figure of the former general.

Italy's political landscape is undergoing a redefinition following the 2022 elections, which brought victory to the center-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni. The current governing majority is composed of Brothers of Italy, the League, Forza Italia, and Noi Moderati. In recent years, the political scene has been shaken by the rise of Futuro Nazionale, a movement founded by General Roberto Vannacci, known for conservative and nationalist positions that have attracted a portion of the right-wing electorate.

The evolution of polls shows a progressive weakening of the traditional parties in the majority, with votes seemingly migrating toward Futuro Nazionale. In parallel, the opposition has sought to build a broader alliance (the 'wide field') that unites the Democratic Party, the Five Star Movement, the Greens and Left Alliance, and other minor center-left formations. This process of electoral realignment, with the growth of new movements and the decline of historical ones, is creating a scenario of substantial equilibrium between the two main blocs, making the outcome of any potential early elections uncertain.