Italy heading for severe weather: alert for heavy rains and cloudbursts

Italy is preparing for a significant worsening of weather conditions starting Tuesday, October 20th. Experts from ilmeteo.it forecast the arrival of an Atlantic disturbance responsible for a phase of severe bad weather, with persistent rainfall, strong thunderstorms, and possible cloudbursts.

The greatest criticalities are expected on Wednesday, October 21st, when the bad weather will affect almost all regions. In particular, the Tyrrhenian areas, Umbria, the sectors north of the Po River, and the far Northeast could record rainfall accumulations well over 100 mm, with a risk of flooding, landslides, and mudslides. Abundant snow is also expected in the Alps, but at high altitudes.

On Tuesday the 20th, the worsening will begin in the North with widespread rain and intense thunderstorms, especially in Liguria. In Central Italy, Tuscany will be affected by rain and showers, while in the South, the bad weather will start from Sardinia and Sicily, extending to Calabria. The Tuscan regional Civil Protection has already extended the yellow weather alert for strong thunderstorms over the Archipelago and the Grosseto coast until 10 AM on Monday the 19th.

The arrival of bad weather is linked to the autumn seasonal cycle, when Atlantic disturbances, originating from the Atlantic Ocean, begin to reach the Mediterranean more frequently. These low-pressure systems transport colder and more humid air, which, clashing with the warmer air still present over our country, generates instability, heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms.

The current situation began with an anticyclonic ridge (high pressure) that dominated the central Mediterranean, connected to a high-pressure field over Scandinavia. This ensured stable conditions. However, the change is triggered by the approach of a disturbance from France, followed by a second, more intense one of Atlantic origin. The first has already brought clouds and light rain to the Northwest, heralding the more significant deterioration.

The expected consequences mainly concern hydrogeological risk: intense and concentrated rainfall in a short time can saturate the ground, causing landslides, mudslides, and the overflow of minor watercourses. The seas, particularly the Ligurian Sea, will become very rough to agitated. Widespread improvement is only expected by Thursday, October 22.